Big Oil

1. An invasion/interference in Venezuela.  An oil deal in progress. Venezuela has 17% of the world's reserves, more than any other country. Not great oil, and hard to get to, but we will.
2. A war that closes the Straights of Hormuz.
3. A war that closes the Bab-el-Mandeb (Red Sea). The US had forces in position that could have impacted this quick movment, but not one strike was made. Either a major f__k-up, or intentional. Too major, I think, to have been accidental.
4. Conversation about ending the war very soon. I'm thinking that is because our objectives, items 2 and 3 above, will be complete.

And so a large portion of the world's supply of oil will be constricted, possibly for decades. 

• Iran is not defeated but rather enraged and positioned to choke the straits. Drones will make it easy.
• By military arm-twisting and bribery, we will have secured oil from Venezuela. 
• The price of oil will soar, allowing Big Oil to print money. Yes, we could restrict exports, but the administration has made no effort to do that and will not. 

This, by the way, is part of why the war in Ukraine was not interesting. No benefit to us. Even among liberals, I think there is a sense that this is Europe's problem first, ours only second.

The business in Gaza is nuts, from the music festival start to where we are now. I think the timing was convenient for the above "conspiracy theory," but probably only that.

Pipelines will be built to the Mediterranean. That will take time.  The straits will become less relevant within 2-5 years. Some already exist, and I am sure they are looking to upgrade this capacity. Not so good for China, but they will find a way.

So is my Big Oil conspiracy theory good for the US or not? It's not nice or globally neighborly, but financially, it's not clear. It depends on how you are invested, to be sure, and how you are employed.  Some benefits will spill beyond big oil, and fuel prices will be up for a while.

But I don't see current events as random.  I see greedy, certainly corrupt, politics. We elected a casino guy--what should we have expected?

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Today Trump asked the Ukraine to stop targeting Russian diesel production. It could cause a shortage. Isn't the hypocrisy in that just mind rattling?  Another example of "watch the shiny ball" to distract people from the important stuff. Unfortunately, there are gullible people.

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Yes, I am posting more politics. Free speech.  What happens when the people do nothing and say nothing? I hope to get back to sailing and tinkering. I'm retired now. That is what I should be doing. But it's raining today.