I'm Surprised That There Have Not Been More Articles on the OBVIOUS Failings of the UW Mdel to Predict the Decline

It was easy to predict the rise. Exponentials and what we saw in Europe. Theoretical reasoning suggested a similar slope on the decline.

Consider the following plots of daily deaths (you could look at "new cases," but with testing increasing there could be drift in what that figure represents).

Italy, 4-15-2020

 Spain, 4-15-2020

But look what has actually been happening. Businesses are still open. People move around more as they get bored or need to do a few things. Instead of dropping off sharply, there is a slower decline or terrace.

Italy, 4-22-2020

 Spain, 4-22-2020

As we watch the UK and US we see and even slower decline and higher terrace. I think we are more stubborn and drive around more.

The model continues to show a quick drop that just isn't going to happen. People are starting to move about more. Businesses are opening because they feel they must. Restrictions will soon be eased.

My guess? I believe we are going to be above 30% of the peak death rate for at least 3 months. My crystal ball only goes that far.  The plus is that herd immunity will increase a bit faster, but at current and even steady infection rates, that will take more than a year.

Keep your head down, if you are older, like me.