I'm Surprised That There Have Not Been More Articles on the OBVIOUS Failings of the UW Mdel to Predict the Decline

It was easy to predict the rise. Exponentials and what we saw in Europe. Theoretical reasoning suggested a similar slope on the decline.

Consider the following plots of daily deaths (you could look at "new cases," but with testing increasing there could be drift in what that figure represents).

Italy, 4-15-2020

 Spain, 4-15-2020

But look what has actually been happening. Businesses are still open. People move around more as they get bored or need to do a few things. Instead of dropping off sharply, there is a slower decline or terrace.

Italy, 4-22-2020

 Spain, 4-22-2020

As we watch the UK and US we see and even slower decline and higher terrace. I think we are more stubborn and drive around more.

The model continues to show a quick drop that just isn't going to happen. People are starting to move about more. Businesses are opening because they feel they must. Restrictions will soon be eased.

My guess? I believe we are going to be above 30% of the peak death rate for at least 3 months. My crystal ball only goes that far.  The plus is that herd immunity will increase a bit faster, but at current and even steady infection rates, that will take more than a year.

Keep your head down, if you are older, like me.

Best Practices During COVID Outbreak

Please follow local restrictions. Nothing I say below should be taken as a rebellion against the policies that are in place. There is too much of that already. I wear my mask and I'm staying near home.

At some point we will exhume the country. For me, boating is vital and it is also something I can do with very little social contact:

• Most of my sailing is solo. The rest is with family or a single friend.
• I don't go to the club house.
• I bring lunch from home.

In fact, this is less contact than I would have walking along the sidewalk. I've even taken to cycling on the streets instead of the paths, because the streets are empty and the paths are too crowded unless it's raining.

Boat Ontario has come up with a "best practice guide" (open the link!!) that makes good sense to me.

Spread it around! I sent a contact at Boat US, since it just came out a few days ago.

 

Taking Face COVID Covering too Far

I have a hard time making light of the current situation, but when my wife came around the corner in this get-up, it was... distracting.

Well, it certainly meets the intent. I suspect it will also help with distancing. But it does make it difficult to handle credit cards.